Martingale vs Fibonacci vs Flat — 10,000 Hand Simulation Results
The Experiment
We tested 6 popular betting strategies by simulating 10,000 baccarat hands for each. Every simulation started with the same conditions:
Each strategy was run 1,000 times to get statistically meaningful averages.
Results — Strategy Comparison
Same bet every hand
Safest. Slow bleed from house edge.
Double after each loss
Wins often, but one bad streak = bankruptcy.
Double after each win
Conservative growth. Good for short sessions.
Follow Fibonacci on loss
Slower than Martingale, but same fate eventually.
Cancel sequence on win
Complex and dangerous. High bust rate.
Fixed 4-step cycle
Smart risk/reward. Limits exposure per cycle.
Key Findings
Flat betting survives the longest
With 95% survival rate, Flat betting is the only strategy where you can play 10,000 hands and still have money. The house edge slowly erodes your bankroll at about 1.2% — but you stay in the game.
Martingale is a ticking time bomb
Martingale wins 58% of sessions — but when it loses, it loses EVERYTHING. A 7-loss streak requires 128x your base bet. Starting at ₦1,000, that is ₦128,000 — more than your entire bankroll.
1-3-2-6 is the best risk/reward
91% survival with only -1.5% ROI. It limits your maximum exposure to 12x base bet per cycle. If you must use a progression system, this is the one.
The Uncomfortable Truth
No betting strategy can overcome the house edge. The math is absolute. Banker bet has a 1.06% house edge, Player has 1.24%. Over 10,000 hands, the casino will always win approximately 1% of your total wagered amount.
Strategies only change how you lose — not whether you lose. Martingale gives you many small wins and one catastrophic loss. Flat betting gives you a slow, predictable decline.
Run Your Own Simulation
Want to test these strategies yourself? Our free Strategy Simulator lets you run any combination of strategy, bankroll, and bet size.
Free Strategy Simulator
Test Martingale, Fibonacci, Paroli, Labouchere, 1-3-2-6, Flat — or build your own custom strategy.
Try Simulator FreeDisclaimer: Simulation results are based on mathematical models and random number generation. Actual casino results may vary. No betting strategy guarantees profits. The house always has a mathematical edge. Please gamble responsibly.